How Mental Models Help You Make Better Decisions in Uncertain Times

We live in a world that rarely hands us clear answers. There’s uncertainty everywhere—career paths, investments, relationships, even simple daily choices.

And yet, we still have to decide. Over and over again.

So, how do you make better decisions when there isn’t a single “right” way forward?

One of the most overlooked tools is something you’re already using every day, whether you realize it or not: mental models. They shape how you think, how you interpret the world, and how you choose to act. And once you start working with them consciously, your decisions begin to shift—quietly, but powerfully.

A mental model is simply a way of understanding how something works. It’s a concept, a belief, a framework you’ve built—often unconsciously—to help you navigate the world.

You don’t carry the full complexity of reality in your brain, so you simplify.

You notice patterns. You store experiences. And over time, your mind builds models to help you predict outcomes and make sense of uncertainty. These models shape everything from your financial decisions to how you handle conflict, solve problems, or interpret someone’s silence in a meeting.

The problem isn’t that you use mental models—it’s that most people rely on too few. They default to the same lens for every decision, which limits their perspective.

But life is too complex for one-size-fits-all thinking.

That’s why thinkers like Charlie Munger emphasize the value of collecting multiple models. Each one gives you a different angle, a new way to interpret what’s in front of you. And the more models you master, the more flexible, creative, and resilient your decision-making becomes—especially when the path forward isn’t obvious.

• Think of supply and demand—a mental model from economics. It helps you understand why prices rise or fall based on scarcity and desire.
• Or take confirmation bias from psychology, which explains why we tend to notice information that supports our beliefs and ignore what contradicts them.
• There’s also anchoring, where the first number or detail you hear becomes a reference point—whether it’s relevant or not.
• Loss aversion shows up when we fear losing something more than we value gaining something new.

These aren’t just theories. They’re invisible forces guiding your decisions every single day.

Mental models come from everywhere—economics, psychology, biology, physics, engineering, even philosophy. Some are complex. Others are simple. But none of them work in every situation.

That’s the point. Each model is a lens, not a law.

The goal isn’t to find one perfect framework—it’s to build a mental toolbox. Because the more models you carry, the more prepared you are to think clearly, adapt quickly, and respond wisely when life throws curveballs your way.

As historian Yuval Noah Harari once said, “The real test of knowledge is not truth, but utility.”

No theory is 100% correct. And no mental model captures reality perfectly. But that’s not what makes them valuable. What matters is how useful they are—how they help you navigate uncertainty, make choices, and create results.

A model that helps you act wisely in real life is far more powerful than one that only works in theory. In that way, science, strategy, and personal growth all follow the same principle: the best ideas are the ones you can actually use.

Your brain builds mental models automatically.

Every day, you notice patterns, store experiences, and form beliefs—many of them without realizing it. Over time, those beliefs become shortcuts for decision-making.

But here’s the problem: your experience is limited. It’s shaped by where you grew up, who you’ve been around, what you’ve been exposed to. That means many of your models may be incomplete, outdated, or just plain wrong.

If you’re not careful, you’ll keep using broken tools without ever questioning them. That’s why upgrading your mental models—by studying, reflecting, and learning from others—isn’t optional. It’s essential.

But here’s what matters most: don’t approach mental models like an academic exercise.

This isn’t about memorizing frameworks or sounding smart. This is about you. Your life. Your habits. Your defaults. Whether you realize it or not, you are already using mental models to operate every single day.

You’ve built shortcuts—systems in your mind that help you move through traffic, conversations, decisions, and doubts. Some of these models serve you. Others keep you stuck.

And most of them? You didn’t choose consciously.

Your brain uses mental models to survive decision fatigue.

It can’t process every detail in real time, so it leans on shortcuts—assumptions built from experience, repetition, and instinct. These mental models help you move through the world without getting overwhelmed.

That’s why, when the traffic light turns amber, you don’t run the numbers—you just know whether to brake or speed through. That decision comes from a mental model you’ve built over time. Your brain has learned to factor in your speed, your confidence, and your distance from the intersection—almost instantly.

The same thing happens when you’re criticized, praised, or met with silence. You react fast, without thinking. Not because you’re impulsive, but because you’re running a model you may not even realize you’ve built.

I’m not saying these models are right or wrong. But they are shaping your decisions. And if you want better outcomes, you need to become aware of the mental models you’re using—and start choosing which ones to upgrade.

So ask yourself

What mental models am I living by?

Maybe you’ve absorbed the belief that “it’s not what you know, it’s who you know.”

Or that “good things happen to those who wait.”

Or that “if I visualize it long enough, it will come.”

These, too, are models—shaping your sense of what’s possible. Even affirmations, visualizations, and declarations are mental models. They’re not just practices. They’re ways of interpreting reality.

The point of this article isn’t to hand you a new philosophy.

It’s to raise your awareness. You’re already building and using mental models every day. Now the question is:

1. Which ones do you want to keep?
2. Which ones do you want to upgrade?
3. And which new ones might help you live with more clarity, power, and purpose?

That’s the journey we’re on together.

To make this real, let me share a few of my own.

1. I used to believe the best way to learn was by holding a physical book in my hand. That was my mental model. Pages, bookmarks, and notes in the margins.
   
   But over time, I realized that model was limiting me. When I switched to Kindle, my reading speed tripled. I stopped thinking I had to read cover to cover. Now, I scan quickly, highlight what matters, and get to the heart of a book in a day or two. The model shifted. It’s still reading—but the system has evolved.
2. Another one: I used to believe that if the traffic light was turning amber, I could always speed up and make it through. That shortcut nearly caused an accident once. My body still remembers the shock. That was a wake-up call. I updated the model. Now, amber means slow down—every time. Safer. Calmer. Less adrenaline, more presence.
   
3. Here’s a subtler one: I still hold the belief that shaving every day makes me more productive. I’ve tested it. On days I don’t shave, I feel a little less sharp, less structured. It might sound trivial, but it’s a personal productivity cue—a mental model that signals: show up clean, show up ready. For someone else, it might be something entirely different. That’s the point.
   
4. And here’s a scientific one I’ve adopted: when I’m anxious, I focus on my breath—specifically, exhaling longer than I inhale. That’s a biological model grounded in real science. It activates the parasympathetic nervous system and helps me regulate my thoughts in tense moments. Just one shift in breathing, and suddenly I have access to better decisions.

These aren’t rules. They’re tools.

Not every mental model needs to be replaced. But every one of them deserves your awareness. So ask yourself:

• What shortcuts do I use to run my life?
• Are they still serving me? And which ones need an upgrade?

That’s the real invitation of this work—not just to think better, but to live more consciously.

If this sparked something in you—if you’re beginning to see your own mental models more clearly...

I’d love to keep exploring this with you. You can sign up for my Heroic Insights newsletter, where I share powerful reflections, tools, and training to help you think clearly, live better, and build a life aligned with what matters most. This is just the beginning.